$1.5M at 65, mostly in an IRA, Social Security at 67: measured
Measured as of January 1, 2026 with 2026 tax law · Last updated September 26, 2026
This is one made-up household, run through ZBee's engine with the app's default assumptions. Nothing here is typed in by hand: every figure on this page comes from the same code the app runs, and the list of assumptions is at the bottom. It is a measurement of this household, not a recommendation for anyone.
The household
A married couple, both 65, both retired, filing jointly in North Carolina. North Carolina taxes IRA withdrawals and does not tax Social Security. Neither has claimed Social Security yet; both plan to claim at 67, their full retirement age.
| Account | Balance | Holdings |
|---|---|---|
| Taxable brokerage | $150,000 | 80% US stock index, 20% bond fund; cost basis $110,000 |
| Traditional IRA | $1,200,000 | 60% US stock index, 40% bond fund |
| Roth IRA | $150,000 | US stock index |
| Total | $1,500,000 | 66% stocks overall |
Social Security: his benefit at full retirement age is $36,000 a year and hers is $24,000 (today's dollars). No pension, no other income, no planned big expenses.
The measurement
Safe yearly spend
$91,400 a year
About $7,600 a month, in today's dollars, after tax, rising with inflation each year for as long as either of them lives, to age 100.
That is the highest steady spend that lasts in 90% of 1,000 simulated markets. It is spending money: taxes and Medicare surcharges are paid on top of it, out of the portfolio. As a second check, the same spend also lasted in 63 of the 63 real market sequences on record that start in 1928 or later and run the full length of the plan.
Year one, and its tax
Year one is 2026. The plan draws the taxable account first (the app's default order), so year one's withdrawal comes out of an account where most of the money is already-taxed principal, and the gain sits in the 0% federal capital-gains band.
| Spending | $91,385 |
| Social Security | $0 |
| Withdrawn from the taxable account | $91,460 |
| Withdrawn from the IRA | $0 |
| Federal income tax | $0 |
| North Carolina income tax | $75 |
| Medicare IRMAA surcharge | $0 |
| Total tax, year one | $75 |
Year one's cash flows happen before any market move, so these lines are the same in every simulated market.
Later, when the IRA money comes out
Year one's low tax does not last. Once the taxable account is spent, withdrawals come from the IRA, and every IRA dollar is ordinary income. Required minimum distributions start at 75 (in 2036). On the average-return path, the first one is about $49,500 and that year's tax is about $7,700. Over all 36 years of the plan the tax adds up to about $296,600. All three figures are in today's dollars and depend on the market, so treat them as the middle of a range.
What moves the number
One change at a time, everything else held as above. These are the decisions ZBee's Trade-offs page measures.
| Change | Safe yearly spend | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| As measured above | $91,400 | |
| Both claim Social Security at 62 | $76,800 | $14,600 less |
| Both claim Social Security at 70 | $99,300 | $7,900 more |
| Accept spending guardrails (small cuts in bad markets) | $100,400 | $9,000 more |
| Leave at least $250,000 behind | $85,600 | $5,800 less |
| Confidence 75% instead of 90% | $97,700 | $6,300 more |
| Confidence 50% instead of 90% | $106,900 | $15,500 more |
A lower confidence is a bigger number and a bigger chance the money runs short: at 50%, half of the simulated markets run out before 100. The table shows what each choice is worth in yearly spending. Which trade is right depends on things a calculator cannot see, such as health, other resources, and how a couple would feel about a cut in a bad year.
Assumptions
- The app's defaults: the "Average" return preset (US stocks 7%, bonds 4% a year, before inflation), 3% inflation, both planned to age 100, the survivor keeps 80% of the couple's spending, no bequest, guardrails off.
- Confidence 90% (the app's Conservative setting) across 1,000 simulated markets with the app's fixed seed, so the run repeats exactly.
- Taxes on: 2026 federal brackets, standard deduction, capital-gains bands, Social Security taxation, the 3.8% investment income tax and Medicare IRMAA, plus North Carolina's income tax; brackets carried forward at the plan's 3% inflation. Withdrawals come from the taxable account first, then the IRA, then the Roth.
- Not modeled: the AMT, tax credits, itemized deductions. The full list is in the methodology.
- Figures are rounded to the nearest $100 except the year-one lines. Dollars are today's dollars.
Measure your own
These are one invented couple's numbers. ZBee™ runs the same measurement on your real accounts, on your Mac: download ZBee for macOS (Apple silicon, M1 or later) and it is free for 30 days on your own numbers. More households: all worked cases.
ZBee is a measurement and planning tool, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Projections are hypothetical estimates that will not match actual results. See the Disclaimer and Terms of Use.