Retired at 58 with a pension and $1M: measured
Measured as of January 1, 2026 with 2026 tax law · Last updated September 26, 2026
This is one made-up household, run through ZBee's engine with the app's default assumptions. Every figure on this page comes from the same code the app runs; the assumptions are listed at the bottom. It measures this household. It does not recommend anything to anyone.
The household
A single retiree, 58, living in Virginia, who left a long career with a pension. The pension pays $30,000 a year starting now, for life, with no cost-of-living raise, so its buying power shrinks every year. Social Security at full retirement age (67) is $28,800 a year in today's dollars, claimed at 67. Health insurance before Medicare is planned at $10,000 a year (today's dollars) from 58 through 64.
| Account | Balance | Holdings |
|---|---|---|
| Taxable brokerage | $250,000 | 80% US stock index, 20% bond fund; cost basis $180,000 |
| Traditional 401(k) / IRA | $650,000 | 60% US stock index, 40% bond fund |
| Roth IRA | $100,000 | US stock index |
| Total | $1,000,000 | 69% stocks overall |
The measurement
Safe yearly spend
$55,500 a year
About $4,600 a month, in today's dollars, after tax, rising with inflation each year to age 100. The pension and, later, Social Security are part of it. The health premiums are paid on top of it.
That is the highest steady spend that lasts in 90% of 1,000 simulated markets over a 43-year plan, with taxes and Medicare surcharges paid on top. The same spend also lasted in 56 of the 56 real market sequences on record that start in 1928 or later and run the full length of the plan.
Year one, and its tax
Year one is 2026. The pension is ordinary income from the first dollar, so unlike the other worked cases this one pays real tax in year one.
| Spending | $55,543 |
| Health premiums (on top of spending) | $10,000 |
| Pension | $30,000 |
| Withdrawn from the taxable account | $38,908 |
| Withdrawn from the 401(k) / IRA | $0 |
| Federal income tax | $1,540 |
| Virginia income tax | $1,825 |
| Early-withdrawal penalty | $0 |
| Total tax, year one | $3,365 |
Nothing comes out of the 401(k) in year one, so the 10% penalty on withdrawals before 59½ does not arise. Year one's cash flows happen before any market move, so these lines are the same in every simulated market.
Later years
Required minimum distributions start at 75 (in 2043). On the average-return path the first one is about $32,800, and that year's tax, with the pension and Social Security stacked on top, is about $9,700. Over all 43 years of the plan the tax adds up to about $366,800. These figures are in today's dollars and depend on the market, so read them as the middle of a range.
What moves the number
One change at a time, everything else held as above.
| Change | Safe yearly spend | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| As measured above | $55,500 | |
| Claim Social Security at 62 | $51,600 | $3,900 less |
| Claim Social Security at 70 | $58,400 | $2,900 more |
| Accept spending guardrails (small cuts in bad markets) | $64,300 | $8,800 more |
| Leave at least $250,000 behind | $50,900 | $4,600 less |
| Confidence 75% instead of 90% | $59,600 | $4,100 more |
| Confidence 50% instead of 90% | $65,300 | $9,800 more |
A lower confidence buys a bigger number with a bigger chance the money runs short before 100. The table shows the size of each trade; weighing it is a personal call.
Assumptions
- The app's defaults: the "Average" return preset (US stocks 7%, bonds 4% a year, before inflation), 3% inflation, planned to age 100, no bequest, guardrails off.
- Confidence 90% (the app's Conservative setting) across 1,000 simulated markets with the app's fixed seed, so the run repeats exactly.
- The pension is a fixed $30,000 a year with no raise. The health premiums rise with inflation.
- Taxes on: 2026 federal brackets for a single filer, standard deduction, capital-gains bands, Social Security taxation, the 3.8% investment income tax, the 10% early-withdrawal penalty and Medicare IRMAA, plus Virginia's income tax; brackets carried forward at the plan's 3% inflation. Withdrawals come from the taxable account first, then the 401(k) / IRA, then the Roth.
- Not modeled: the AMT, tax credits, itemized deductions. The full list is in the methodology.
- Figures are rounded to the nearest $100 except the year-one lines. Dollars are today's dollars.
Measure your own
These are one invented household's numbers. ZBee™ runs the same measurement on your real accounts, on your Mac: download ZBee for macOS (Apple silicon, M1 or later) and it is free for 30 days on your own numbers. More households: all worked cases.
ZBee is a measurement and planning tool, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Projections are hypothetical estimates that will not match actual results. See the Disclaimer and Terms of Use.