Roth-heavy $1.2M at 60, retiring at 63: measured
Measured as of January 1, 2026 with 2026 tax law · Last updated September 26, 2026
This is one made-up household, run through ZBee's engine with the app's default assumptions. Every figure on this page comes from the same code the app runs; the assumptions are listed at the bottom. It measures this household. It does not recommend anything to anyone.
The household
A married couple, both 60, filing jointly in Texas, which has no state income tax. Both still work and together add $25,000 a year to their savings until they both retire at 63. Half their money is in Roth accounts, from years of Roth 401(k) contributions. Both plan to claim Social Security at 70. Health insurance for the two years between retiring and Medicare is planned at $24,000 a year for the two of them (today's dollars).
| Account | Balance | Holdings |
|---|---|---|
| Taxable brokerage | $300,000 | 80% US stock index, 20% bond fund; cost basis $200,000 |
| Traditional 401(k) / IRA | $300,000 | 60% US stock index, 40% bond fund |
| Roth 401(k) / Roth IRA | $600,000 | 83% US stock index, 17% bond fund |
| Total | $1,200,000 | 77% stocks overall |
Social Security at full retirement age (67): his is $38,400 a year and hers is $26,400 (today's dollars), both claimed at 70.
The measurement
Safe yearly spend from 63
$93,100 a year
About $7,800 a month, in today's dollars, after tax, starting at retirement and rising with inflation each year for as long as either of them lives, to age 100. The health premiums are paid on top of it.
That is the highest steady spend that lasts in 90% of 1,000 simulated markets, with taxes and Medicare surcharges paid on top. The same spend also lasted in 58 of the 58 real market sequences on record that start in 1928 or later and run the full length of the plan.
The first year of retirement, and its tax
Their first year of retirement is 2029, at 63. That year depends on how markets do between now and then, so these lines come from the average-return path and are shown in today's dollars.
| Spending | $93,066 |
| Health premiums (on top of spending) | $24,000 |
| Social Security | $0 |
| Withdrawn from the taxable account | $117,066 |
| Withdrawn from the 401(k) / IRA | $0 |
| Withdrawn from Roth accounts | $0 |
| Federal income tax | $0 |
| Total tax, first retirement year | $0 |
Across the whole plan
Roth withdrawals are not taxed, and the traditional accounts here are small enough that, on the average-return path, they are used up by 72, before required minimum distributions would begin at 75. So no distribution is ever forced on this path. Over all 41 years of the plan the tax adds up to about $24,200 in today's dollars. Compare the $1.5M couple whose money is mostly in an IRA, where the same total runs into the hundreds of thousands. The market decides the exact figures, so read them as the middle of a range.
What moves the number
One change at a time, everything else held as above. These are the decisions ZBee's Trade-offs page measures.
| Change | Safe yearly spend | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| As measured above | $93,100 | |
| Both retire at 62 | $90,000 | $3,100 less |
| Both retire at 65 | $100,900 | $7,800 more |
| Both claim Social Security at 62 | $74,000 | $19,100 less |
| Both claim Social Security at 67 | $85,900 | $7,200 less |
| Accept spending guardrails (small cuts in bad markets) | $103,600 | $10,500 more |
| Leave at least $250,000 behind | $87,700 | $5,400 less |
| Confidence 75% instead of 90% | $99,400 | $6,300 more |
| Confidence 50% instead of 90% | $109,200 | $16,100 more |
The retire-age rows move the date spending starts, and the yearly saving runs until that date. The health premiums keep the ages entered (63 and 64), and ZBee counts a planned expense only once spending has started. So retiring at 65 also drops the premiums, as if an employer plan covered those two years, and retiring at 62 leaves age 62 with no premium. A lower confidence buys a bigger number with a bigger chance the money runs short before 100. The table shows the size of each trade; weighing it is a personal call.
Assumptions
- The app's defaults: the "Average" return preset (US stocks 7%, bonds 4% a year, before inflation), 3% inflation, both planned to age 100, the survivor keeps 80% of the couple's spending, no bequest, guardrails off.
- Confidence 90% (the app's Conservative setting) across 1,000 simulated markets with the app's fixed seed, so the run repeats exactly.
- Savings of $25,000 a year until retirement; wages themselves are not part of the plan, only what is saved.
- Taxes on: 2026 federal brackets, standard deduction, capital-gains bands, Social Security taxation, the 3.8% investment income tax and Medicare IRMAA; Texas has no state income tax. Brackets carried forward at the plan's 3% inflation. Withdrawals come from the taxable account first, then the 401(k) / IRA, then the Roth.
- Not modeled: the AMT, tax credits, itemized deductions. The full list is in the methodology.
- Figures are rounded to the nearest $100 except the first-year lines. Dollars are today's dollars.
Measure your own
These are one invented couple's numbers. ZBee™ runs the same measurement on your real accounts, on your Mac: download ZBee for macOS (Apple silicon, M1 or later) and it is free for 30 days on your own numbers. More households: all worked cases.
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